Paeds · clinical-assessment-and-reasoning
Diagnostic test selection and Bayesian reasoning in paediatrics
Also known as Bayesian reasoning paediatrics · Likelihood ratios children · Sensitivity specificity paediatrics · Pre-test probability children · Diagnostic test interpretation paediatrics · Choosing investigations children
A fellowship approach to choosing and interpreting paediatric tests: pre-test probability, sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios, residual risk, over-testing traps, age-specific reference intervals, and shared decisions from neonate to transition.
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Target exams
Red flags
- Negative low-sensitivity test used to discharge a high pre-test-risk child
- Positive low-specificity test treated as disease in a low-prevalence setting
- Adult or wrong-age reference intervals applied to a child
- Contaminated sample acted on as true infection without method review
- Routine panel or radiograph ordered when the result cannot change the plan
- Pending results handed over without owner, expected impact or residual risk
Life stages
Care settings
Clinical exam formats
Board mappings
- General and Community Paediatrics
- Current 2026 PREP curriculum — Learning Objective 2.2.1: Recognise, prioritise and manage an acutely ill infant, child or young person
- Renewed curriculum for first-year trainees from 2027 — Learning goal 5: Clinical assessment – essential general paediatrics
- Renewed curriculum for first-year trainees from 2027 — Learning goal 6: Clinical management – essential general paediatrics
- Renewed curriculum for first-year trainees from 2027 — Learning goal 12: Communication with patients, families, and health professionals
- Renewed curriculum for first-year trainees from 2027 — Learning goal 15: Essential general paediatrics
- Clinical Applications
- Medical Sciences
- Long Cases
- Short Cases
- 2. Professional skills and knowledge: Communication
- 4. Professional skills and knowledge: Patient management
- 7. Patient safety, including safe prescribing
- General Paediatrics: Assumes the role of Acute Paediatric Team Leader, liaising with primary care services and other hospital and community specialist teams to effectively manage and coordinate patient flow, staffing, safety and quality in the paediatric acute assessment and inpatient units
- Foundation of Practice (FOP)
- Theory and Science (TAS)
- Applied Knowledge in Practice (AKP)
- Clinical
- History
- Communication
- Video
- General Pediatrics Content Outline — Domain 24: Patient Safety, Quality Improvement, and Research Methods
- General Pediatrics Content Outline — Universal Task 2: Epidemiology and Risk Assessment
- General Pediatrics Content Outline — Universal Task 3: Diagnosis
- General Pediatrics Content Outline — Universal Task 4: Management and Treatment
- General Pediatrics EPA 7: Recognizing a Severely Ill Patient, Providing Initial Management, and Mobilizing Resources Needed for Continued Care
- General Pediatrics EPA 8: Executing Clinical Handovers Within or Across Settings
- Patient Care 3: Organize and Prioritize Patient Care
- Patient Care 4: Clinical Reasoning
- Patient Care 5: Patient Management
- Systems-Based Practice 1: Patient Safety
- Interpersonal and Communication Skills 1: Patient- and Family-Centered Communication
- Medical Expert
- Pediatrics: Transition to Discipline EPA #1 — Performing and presenting a basic history and physical examination
- Pediatrics: Foundations EPA #1 — Recognizing deteriorating and/or critically ill patients and initiating stabilization and management
- Pediatrics: Foundations EPA #8 — Communicating assessment findings and management plans to patients and/or families
- Pediatrics: Foundations EPA #10 — Transferring clinical information between health care providers during handover
Overview & Definition
You are about to order a test for a child. The useful question is not “what can I order?” It is “what do I believe now, and will this result change what I do next?” That is Bayesian reasoning in ordinary English. You start with a clinical story and a rough pre-test probability. The test updates that probability. Then you act on the new probability and the residual risk that remains. [2] [5] [26]
A pre-test probability is your estimate that the target condition is present before the result returns. It comes from age, tempo, findings, exposure, comorbidity and local epidemiology. It does not need false decimal precision. High, intermediate or low is often enough if you are honest about uncertainty. [2] [7]
A diagnostic test is any information that changes probability. History and examination are tests. Glucose, urine culture, rapid antigen assay, decision rules and imaging are tests. So is watching the child for two hours. The laboratory is not the only place Bayesian thinking lives. [2] [26]
The bedside Bayesian pathway
- 1
Name the question
What condition am I trying to raise or lower, and why does that matter now?
- 2
Estimate pre-test risk
Use age, findings, trajectory and caregiver concern. Keep must-not-miss risk explicit.
- 3
Decide if a test is needed
If no result will change action or residual risk, observe and safety-net instead.
- 4
Choose the discriminating test
Prefer the least harmful method that actually separates the active scripts.
- 5
Update and act
Convert the result into post-test probability, residual risk, plan and handover.
References26ShowHide
- [1]Akobeng AK Understanding diagnostic tests 1: sensitivity, specificity and predictive values. Acta paediatrica (Oslo, Norway : 1992), 2007.PMID 17407452
- [2]Akobeng AK Understanding diagnostic tests 2: likelihood ratios, pre- and post-test probabilities and their use in clinical practice. Acta paediatrica (Oslo, Norway : 1992), 2007.PMID 17306009
- [3]Akobeng AK Understanding diagnostic tests 3: Receiver operating characteristic curves. Acta paediatrica (Oslo, Norway : 1992), 2007.PMID 17376185
- [4]Deeks JJ Diagnostic tests 4: likelihood ratios. BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2004.PMID 15258077
- [5]Fagan TJ Letter: Nomogram for Bayes's theorem. The New England journal of medicine, 1975.PMID 1143310
- [6]Caraguel CG The two-step Fagan's nomogram: ad hoc interpretation of a diagnostic test result without calculation. Evidence-based medicine, 2013.PMID 23468201
- [7]Pauker SG The threshold approach to clinical decision making. The New England journal of medicine, 1980.PMID 7366635
- [8]Bossuyt PM STARD 2015: an updated list of essential items for reporting diagnostic accuracy studies. BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2015.PMID 26511519
- [9]Whiting PF QUADAS-2: a revised tool for the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies. Annals of internal medicine, 2011.PMID 22007046
- [10]Schuh S Evaluation of the utility of radiography in acute bronchiolitis. The Journal of pediatrics, 2007.PMID 17382126
- [11]Frazier SB Reducing Chest Radiographs in Bronchiolitis Through High-Reliability Interventions. Pediatrics, 2021.PMID 34344801
- [12]Kuppermann N Identification of children at very low risk of clinically-important brain injuries after head trauma: a prospective cohort study. Lancet (London, England), 2009.PMID 19758692
- [13]Holmes JF PECARN prediction rules for CT imaging of children presenting to the emergency department with blunt abdominal or minor head trauma: a multicentre prospective validation study. The Lancet. Child & adolescent health, 2024.PMID 38609287
- [14]Cohen JF Rapid antigen detection test for group A streptococcus in children with pharyngitis. The Cochrane database of systematic reviews, 2016.PMID 27374000
- [15]Cohen JF Group A Streptococcus pharyngitis in Children: New Perspectives on Rapid Diagnostic Testing and Antimicrobial Stewardship. Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society, 2024.PMID 38456797
- [16]Guri A Contamination rates of different methods of urine culture collection in children: A retrospective cohort study. Journal of paediatrics and child health, 2021.PMID 33760325
- [17]Adeli K The Canadian laboratory initiative on pediatric reference intervals: A CALIPER white paper. Critical reviews in clinical laboratory sciences, 2017.PMID 29017389
- [18]Størdal K Overtesting and overtreatment-statement from the European Academy of Paediatrics (EAP). European journal of pediatrics, 2019.PMID 31506723
- [19]Jankauskaite L Overuse of medical care in paediatrics: A survey from five countries in the European Academy of Pediatrics. Frontiers in pediatrics, 2022.PMID 36177454
- [20]Benabbas R Diagnostic Accuracy of History, Physical Examination, Laboratory Tests, and Point-of-care Ultrasound for Pediatric Acute Appendicitis in the Emergency Department: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. Academic emergency medicine : official journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine, 2017.PMID 28214369
- [21]Kinnear B Integrating Bayesian reasoning into medical education using smartphone apps. Diagnosis (Berlin, Germany), 2019.PMID 30817298
- [22]Burstein B Prediction of Bacteremia and Bacterial Meningitis Among Febrile Infants Aged 28 Days or Younger. JAMA, 2026.PMID 41359314
- [23]Louie JP When less is more: Overdiagnosis and overtesting in pediatric febrile seizures in the adult emergency department. The American journal of emergency medicine, 2025.PMID 40532406
- [24]Newman-Toker DE A unified conceptual model for diagnostic errors: underdiagnosis, overdiagnosis, and misdiagnosis. Diagnosis (Berlin, Germany), 2014.PMID 28367397
- [25]Bordini BJ Overcoming Diagnostic Errors in Medical Practice. The Journal of pediatrics, 2017.PMID 28336147
- [26]Bowen JL Educational strategies to promote clinical diagnostic reasoning. The New England journal of medicine, 2006.PMID 17124019