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EM TopicsMass-gathering and event medicine

EM · Mass-gathering and event medicine

Mass-gathering and event medicine — PICE classification, casualty prediction and event medical planning

Also known as Mass-gathering medicine · Event medicine · Mass gathering medical care · PICE classification · Potential injury creating event · Patient presentation rate · PPR · Transport to hospital rate · TTHR · MIMMS · Crowd crush · Compressive asphyxia · Event medical planning · Festival medicine

Mass-gathering and event medicine — the provision of healthcare to defined crowds at planned events and the planning required to do it safely. The WHO functional definition of a mass gathering (a crowd with the potential to strain the planning and response resources of the host community; an operational threshold of 1000 or more attendees) and the distinction from a mass casualty incident (the casualty-generating event that shifts the standard of care to the population — the greatest good for the greatest number). The PICE (Potential Injury Creating Event) classification of any event by Type (planned or unplanned, primary or secondary), Category (static or dynamic), Status (controlled or uncontrolled) and Stage (0 to 4 by need for outside aid). The Arbon predictive model for patient presentation rate (about 1 per 1000 attendees overall, higher for outdoor, unbounded, hot-weather and alcohol-available events) and transport to hospital rate (about 0.03 per 1000 attendees). Event archetypes (sport, concert, pilgrimage, festival), the MEDPLAN six-domain medical plan, MIMMS CSCATT command, SALT triage, crowd crush as compressive asphyxia, MDMA-related hyperthermia and hyponatraemia, crush syndrome, and the escalation triggers that convert a mass gathering into a mass casualty incident.

low17 referencesUpdated 26 July 202622 min readVerification in progress

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Red flags

  • A mass gathering is a planned crowd; a mass casualty incident is a casualty-generating event — when the on-site medical cover is overwhelmed, a mass gathering becomes an MCI and the standard of care shifts from the individual to the population
  • Crowd crush kills by compressive asphyxia, not trampling — at high crowd densities individuals lose control of their movement and pressure transmits through the crowd to cause positional asphyxial death
  • The Arbon predictive model gives an overall patient presentation rate of about 1 per 1000 attendees (0.99 per 1000) and transport rate about 0.03 per 1000 — higher for outdoor, unbounded, hot-weather and alcohol-available events — under-resourcing against this figure is the cardinal planning failure
  • MDMA at a hot outdoor festival causes hyperthermia and hyponatraemia from water overconsumption — the single-drug patient can mimic heat stroke, and the two presentations must be managed together with active cooling
  • The first patients to self-present at the on-site medical post are the least injured — the seriously injured arrive later by stretcher and the casualty wave builds over hours
  • Loss of the on-site command structure or communications is itself an escalation trigger — without command there is no triage, no transport matrix and no coordinated response
  • Crush syndrome releases potassium and myoglobin on extrication — pre-extrication fluid loading and post-release rhabdomyolysis management prevent the reperfusion death
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Related topics

  • Team-based care and crisis resource management in the emergency department
  • Trauma team leadership
  • The Australasian Triage Scale — categories, validity, reliability and the under-triaged patient
  • Heat illness and heat stroke
  • Patient disposition and safety-netting in the emergency department
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Your progress

Saved on this device.

Practise this topic8 MCQs with explanations

Target exams

ACEMFRCEMABEMFRCPCCCFPEMEBEEM

Red flags

  • A mass gathering is a planned crowd; a mass casualty incident is a casualty-generating event — when the on-site medical cover is overwhelmed, a mass gathering becomes an MCI and the standard of care shifts from the individual to the population
  • Crowd crush kills by compressive asphyxia, not trampling — at high crowd densities individuals lose control of their movement and pressure transmits through the crowd to cause positional asphyxial death
  • The Arbon predictive model gives an overall patient presentation rate of about 1 per 1000 attendees (0.99 per 1000) and transport rate about 0.03 per 1000 — higher for outdoor, unbounded, hot-weather and alcohol-available events — under-resourcing against this figure is the cardinal planning failure
  • MDMA at a hot outdoor festival causes hyperthermia and hyponatraemia from water overconsumption — the single-drug patient can mimic heat stroke, and the two presentations must be managed together with active cooling
  • The first patients to self-present at the on-site medical post are the least injured — the seriously injured arrive later by stretcher and the casualty wave builds over hours
  • Loss of the on-site command structure or communications is itself an escalation trigger — without command there is no triage, no transport matrix and no coordinated response
  • Crush syndrome releases potassium and myoglobin on extrication — pre-extrication fluid loading and post-release rhabdomyolysis management prevent the reperfusion death
The one-line answer

Mass-gathering medicine predicts the casualties from the crowd and the event, then stages the medical post to absorb them. Any event is classified by PICE — four axes (Type, Category, Status, Stage) collapsed into one compact string — its casualty load forecast by the Arbon model (overall patient presentation rate about 1 per 1000 attendees across 201 events and 12 million attendances, higher for outdoor, unbounded, hot-weather and alcohol-available events; transport-to-hospital rate about 0.03 per 1000 attendees), and the moment on-site cover is overwhelmed it escalates to a mass casualty incident and the standard of care shifts from the individual to the population — greatest good for the greatest number.[1]

Meet the patient

A 22-year-old man is half-carried into the on-site medical post at an outdoor summer music festival on day two — 36 degrees Celsius in the shade, headline act in an hour. He is agitated, pulling off his shirt, drenched in sweat; a friend says he took two pills about four hours ago and has been drinking non-stop from the free water points. Rectal temperature 41.2 degrees Celsius, heart rate 144, GCS 13, glucose normal.[1]

This is the single patient who holds the whole topic together. He is simultaneously heat stroke and MDMA toxicity — hyperthermia from the drug and the weather, hyponatraemia from the water he drank to stay safe — and the casualty wave is still building behind him. The two questions every event-medicine stem turns on: is this presentation within the predicted load the plan was sized for, and has that load now overtaken the team's capacity? Hold those two questions and PICE, Arbon and the escalation triggers all slot into place.[1]

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References17ShowHide
  1. [1]Arbon P, Bridgewater FHG, Smith C. Mass gathering medicine: a predictive model for patient presentation and transport rates Prehosp Disaster Med, 2001.PMID 11875799
  2. [2]Arbon P. Mass-gathering medicine: a review of the evidence and future directions for research Prehosp Disaster Med, 2007.PMID 17591185
  3. [3]Arbon P, Bottema M, Zeitz K, et al. Nonlinear Modelling for Predicting Patient Presentation Rates for Mass Gatherings Prehosp Disaster Med, 2018.PMID 29962363
  4. [4]Jaslow D, Yancy A 2nd, Milsten A Mass gathering medical care. National Association of EMS Physicians Standards and Clinical Practice Committee Prehosp Emerg Care, 2000.PMID 11045418
  5. [5]Jaslow D, Drake M, Lewis J. Characteristics of state legislation governing medical care at mass gatherings Prehosp Emerg Care, 1999.PMID 10534032
  6. [6]Turris S, Lund A, Munn MB, et al. Measuring the Masses: Domains Driving Data Collection and Analysis for the Health Outcomes of Mass Gatherings (Paper 3) Prehosp Disaster Med, 2021.PMID 33602378
  7. [7]Turris S, Rabb H, Chasmar E, et al. Measuring the Masses: A Proposed Template for Post-Event Medical Reporting (Paper 4) - CORRIGENDUM Prehosp Disaster Med, 2021.PMID 33818337
  8. [8]Hutton A, Munn MB, White S, et al. Does the Presence of On-Site Medical Services at Outdoor Music Festivals Affect Attendees' Planned Alcohol and Recreational Drug Use? Prehosp Disaster Med, 2021.PMID 34187607
  9. [9]Steenkamp M, Hutton AE, Ranse JC, et al. Exploring International Views on Key Concepts for Mass-gathering Health through a Delphi Process Prehosp Disaster Med, 2016.PMID 27212053
  10. [10]Born CT, Briggs SM, Ciraulo DL, et al. Disasters and mass casualties: I. General principles of response and management J Am Acad Orthop Surg, 2007.PMID 17602028
  11. [11]Nocera A Australian major incident nomenclature: it may be a 'disaster' but in an 'emergency' it is just a mess ANZ J Surg, 2001.PMID 11277146
  12. [12]Peiris D A historical perspective on crush syndrome: the clinical application of its pathogenesis, established by the study of wartime crush injuries J Clin Pathol, 2017.PMID 27920043
  13. [13]Al-Tawfiq JA, Rashid H, Parker S, et al. Public health preparedness and infectious disease risk management across religious mass gatherings: a comparative analysis of Hajj, Umrah, Arba'een and Kumbh Mela J Travel Med, 2026.PMID 41934233
  14. [14]Ren D, Breslin K, Goodwin T, et al. Evaluation of Pediatric Triage Decisions Using the SALT (Sort, Assess, Life-saving Intervention, Treatment/Transport) Triage System across Training Levels Disaster Med Public Health Prep, 2025.PMID 41339328
  15. [15]Kara FS, Yıldırım GÖ. Determination of the causes of stampedes, deaths and injuries in football stadiums. Am J Disaster Med, 2026.PMID 42262273
  16. [16]Douma MJ, et al. First aid cooling techniques for heat stroke and exertional hyperthermia: A systematic review and meta-analysis Resuscitation, 2020.PMID 31981710
  17. [17]Zuidema MJ, et al. Acute complications and treatment in critically ill patients with 3,4-methylenedioxymetamfetamine intoxication: a 10-year retrospective observational study in an intensive care unit in an Amsterdam hospital. Clin Toxicol (Phila), 2025.PMID 39977237

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Related topics

  • Team-based care and crisis resource management in the emergency department
  • Trauma team leadership
  • The Australasian Triage Scale — categories, validity, reliability and the under-triaged patient
  • Heat illness and heat stroke
  • Patient disposition and safety-netting in the emergency department