Communicating risk and uncertainty to families — formative SAQs

SAQ 1 (10 marks)

A parent has read online that a daily preventive medication for their child's chronic illness "reduces harm by 50%". They are unsure whether to start it. ^[1]

1. Explain why quoting "a 50% reduction" alone is a communication failure, and describe how you would reframe the benefit accurately. (4) ^{[1] [3]}
2. Outline the presentation format and visual aid you would use to support this discussion. (3) ^{[4] [6]}
3. Describe how you would confirm the family understood the numbers and the options before a decision. (3) ^{[13] [14]}

Model answer

"50%" is a relative risk reduction quoted without its baseline, which inflates perceived benefit. Reframe by stating the absolute baseline risk and the absolute risk reduction, so the family understands the true magnitude; for example, halving a risk from 2 in 1000 to 1 in 1000 is a 50% relative reduction and a 0.1 percentage-point absolute reduction. ^{[1] [3]}

Present the numbers as natural frequencies with one consistent denominator, and add a pictograph (icon array) so the denominator is visible; for a medication, use a drug-facts box pairing benefit and harm side by side in absolute terms, or a validated patient decision aid for the preference-sensitive choice. ^{[4] [6]}

Confirm understanding with teach-back: ask the family to restate the chance and the options in their own words, elicit their values and preferred direction, name any uncertainty honestly, and provide a written summary and a named follow-up contact. ^{[13] [14]}